30 Apr DO YOU THINK THAT THE AUD WILL FALL AS LOW AS US 65C BY THE END OF 2016?
Commodity prices are likely to continue to decline. Last week, the International Monetary Fund
revised down its forecast for global growth, indicating the glut of commodities is likely to push prices
down as demand slows.
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“Financial markets are pricing in about an 80 per cent chance of an additional interest rate cut [in
Australia] by February 2016,” Mr Grace said.
Capital Economics is anticipating an interest rate cut of 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent by the RBA before
the March 2016.
While Australia, Canada and New Zealand are preparing to cut rates, the United States and United
Kingdom are likely to raise rates later this year, which would cause a further decline in value for the
Aussie.
The greenback reached a six-week high at the end of the week as the European Central Bank
announced liquidity boosting measures for Greece.
Fairfax Media Australia
Assignment
From the article titled ‘Australian dollars next stop? US65¢ predicted as commodity prices
decline (Australian Financial Review July 17, 2015), answer the following questions.
(a) Briefly summarise the main issues discussed in this article? [Not exceeding 200 words] –
(25 Marks)
(b) Using Demand and Supply model of exchange rate determination briefly explain how
AUD is determined in the forex market, and what factors influence its fluctuations. – (15
Marks)
(c) Using exchange rate data from Reserve Bank of Australia and graphs (monthly data of
last three years) analyse the movement of AUD relative to that of the US dollar? Is it in line
with the world commodity price movement during this period? Are there any other factors
contributing to this behaviour of the Australian dollar? – (25 Marks)
(d) Do you think that the AUD will fall as low as US 65C by the end of 2016? Justify your
answer. What advantages do you think Australia will have in such a scenario? – (15 Marks)
(e) If the market rate is US 65C then what action could the Reserve Bank of Australia take in
order to maintain the exchange rate at US 70C, and what side effects might this action have
on the Australian economy? Do you think that such actions would be effective? – (20 Marks)
Word Limit: 2000 words maximum. Word count (excluding references) must be provided.
Excess words will not be marked.
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Instructions
1. This assignment is marked out of 100 and is worth 25 per cent of overall marks.
2. At least 4 relevant references are required regarding the issue featured in your
allocated topic.
3. Turnitin Report: It will be compulsory for all students to submit the written
assignment (final version) into the Turnitin system before submitting the hard copy to
the tutor. Students are encouraged to submit drafts of the assignment before the due
date, enabling students to check their referencing and rectify any issues before
submission of the final version.
a. In the absence of the submission of the Turnitin report, a zero mark will be
awarded for this assignment task.
b. A similarity index of less than 10 per cent is expected in your assignment.
Zero tolerance applies for plagiarism
4. Hand in your hard copy of the assignment to the tutor on or before Week 8 of
Trimester 3. Penalty applies for late submission.
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