Question 41) A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time?

41) A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time?

A) 2-4 weeks

B) 1 month to 1 year

C) 2-4 years

D) 5-10 years

E) 20 years

42) When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naïve forecasting model?

A) ? = 0

B) ? = 0.5

C) ? = 1

D) during the first period in which it is used

E) never

43) Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130. Suppose a one-semester moving average was used to forecast enrollment (this is sometimes referred to as a naïve forecast). Thus, the forecast for the second semester would be 120, for the third semester it would be 126, and for the last semester it would be 110. What would the MSE be for this situation?

A) 196.00

B) 230.67

C) 100.00

D) 42.00

E) None of the above

44) Which of the following methods tells whether the forecast tends to be too high or too low?

A) MAD

B) MSE

C) MAPE

D) decomposition

E) bias

45) Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models. For the first, the MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7. We can then say:

A) the third method is the best.

B) the second method is the best.

C) methods one and three are preferable to method two.

D) method two is least preferred.

E) None of the above

46) Which of the following methods gives an indication of the percentage of forecast error?

A) MAD

B) MSE

C) MAPE

D) decomposition

E) bias

47) Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a two-day moving average.

A) 14

B) 13

C) 15

D) 28

E) 12.5

48) As one increases the number of periods used in the calculation of a moving average,

A) greater emphasis is placed on more recent data.

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