28 May Question Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases per year.
Question
Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases per year. In an overwhelming majority of the cases disposed, the verdict stands as rendered. However, some cases are appealed, and of those appealed, some of the cases are reversed. Kristen DelGuzzi of the Cincinnati Enquirer conducted a study of cases handled by Hamilton County judges over a three-year period (Cincinnati Enquirer, January 11, 1998). Shown in Table 2.5 are the results for 182,908 cases handled (disposed) by 38 judges in Common Pleas Court, Domestic Relations Court, and Municipal Court. Two of the judges (Dinkelacker and Hogan) did not serve in the same court for the entire three-year period.
The purpose of the newspaper’s study was to evaluate the performance of the judges. Appeals are often the result of mistakes made by judges, and the newspaper wanted to know which judges were doing a good job and which were making too many mistakes. You have been called in to assist in the data analysis. Use your knowledge of probability and conditional probability to help with the ranking of the judges. You also may be able to analyze the likelihood of cases handled by the different courts being appealed and reversed.
Managerial Report
Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also include an analysis of the likelihood of appeal and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum, your report should include the following:
1. The probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts
2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge
3. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge
4. The probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge
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