24 Jun How did the US perceive the Soviet threat?
How did the US perceive the Soviet threat?
§ How did the US expect Castro to respond to US aggression in the aftermath of the Bay of Pigs invasion?
b. How did the Soviets perceive the US threat?
§ How did the deployment of US nuclear missiles to Turkey impact Soviet perceptions?
c. How did Cuba perceive the US threat?
§ How did Castro view the Bay of Pigs invasion?
d. What role did Soviet deception play in the crisis?
§ Was it effectively executed?
§ How did their plan take advantage of US perceptions?
§ Did the Soviet deception plan allow the US to “see what they expected to see?” or did it alert the US of their true intentions?
§ How did the Soviets mask the “signal” (i.e. their intent) from the “noise” (Soviet deception and misinformation)?
e. How would you apply Heuers statement to US perceptions? “The human capacity to rationalize contradictory evidence is easily sufficient to outweigh the pernicious effects of security leaks and uncontrolled channels of information that planners of deception…might compromise their efforts.”
f. What analytical biases and assumptions were displayed by US policymakers/analysis?
§ How did false HUMINT inductive conclusions lead to false deductive conclusions?
§ What assumptions and biases did US policymakers and/or analysts challenge?
§ How did US policymakers/analysts challenge their conceptual framework?
§ How did the US view the deployment of defensive (Soviet) weapons to Cuba?
g. How did US policymakers/analysts assess events in Cuba?
§ What type(s) of critical reasoning were employed by US policymakers/analysts?
§ Did US policymakers/analysts display any imagination, open-mindedness, or creativity?
§ What role did analogies play? Did they effectively enhance mental models or did they do more damage than go
§ How did the US expect Castro to respond to US aggression in the aftermath of the Bay of Pigs invasion?
b. How did the Soviets perceive the US threat?
§ How did the deployment of US nuclear missiles to Turkey impact Soviet perceptions?
c. How did Cuba perceive the US threat?
§ How did Castro view the Bay of Pigs invasion?
d. What role did Soviet deception play in the crisis?
§ Was it effectively executed?
§ How did their plan take advantage of US perceptions?
§ Did the Soviet deception plan allow the US to “see what they expected to see?” or did it alert the US of their true intentions?
§ How did the Soviets mask the “signal” (i.e. their intent) from the “noise” (Soviet deception and misinformation)?
e. How would you apply Heuers statement to US perceptions? “The human capacity to rationalize contradictory evidence is easily sufficient to outweigh the pernicious effects of security leaks and uncontrolled channels of information that planners of deception…might compromise their efforts.”
f. What analytical biases and assumptions were displayed by US policymakers/analysis?
§ How did false HUMINT inductive conclusions lead to false deductive conclusions?
§ What assumptions and biases did US policymakers and/or analysts challenge?
§ How did US policymakers/analysts challenge their conceptual framework?
§ How did the US view the deployment of defensive (Soviet) weapons to Cuba?
g. How did US policymakers/analysts assess events in Cuba?
§ What type(s) of critical reasoning were employed by US policymakers/analysts?
§ Did US policymakers/analysts display any imagination, open-mindedness, or creativity?
§ What role did analogies play? Did they effectively enhance mental models or did they do more damage than go
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