01 Jul ITS 832 Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis
Question Description
This will be a detailed summary of the research paper and what you gained from the research. Each week, you will find an article/peer-reviewed research paper that pertains to the week’s assignment. If you have a difficult time, Google Scholar is a wonderful location to find these types of articles:
https://scholar.google.com/
Once you find the article, you will simply read it and then write a review of it. Think of it as an article review where you submit a short overview of the article.
Attachment preview
ITS 832 CHAPTER 4
POLICY MAKING AND MODELLING IN A COMPLEX WORLD
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY
INTRODUCTION
• Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World
• Complexity
• Managing Complex Systems
• Modelling for Complex Systems
COMPLEXITY
• System composed of multiple interacting elements
• Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to predict
• Many complex systems in the physical world
• Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long-term survival in complex
systems
• Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
DOUBLE PENDULUM EXAMPLE
COMMON MISTAKES IN MANAGING COMPLEX
SYSTEMS
• Quantification
• Policy is biased towards easily quantifiable features
• Most often, monetary quantification
• Commonly overlooks important non-quantifiable aspects
• Compartmentalization
• Attempts to simplify complex social systems
• Large systems are split into smaller systems
• Likely to miss interactions between smaller systems
• Spillover effect
COMPLEXITY IN POLICY MAKING
• Common approaches
• Instrumental
• Choosing between a set of possible policies
• Evaluated based on past effectiveness
• Requires
• Large enough pool of available strategies
• Effective assessment if effectiveness
• Representational
• Se
INSTRUMENTAL APPROACH
REPRESENTATIONAL APPROACH
AGENT-BASED MODELS
• Represents individuals as separate models
• Agents interact through a network
• Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions
• SIMSOC
• Simulated Society
• Modeling projects repository
SUMMARY
• Complex systems are difficult to model
• Interactions can be unpredictable
• Common mistakes in modeling complex systems
• Quantification
• Compartmentalization
• Two common approaches to complex system modeling
• Instrumental
• Representational
• Agent-based modeling
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