07 May IN WHICH PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ARE WETNESS OR DRYNESS MORE STRONGLY ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO THAN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA?
Answer the following four questions thoroughly in one paragraph for each.
(1) Under “Jan-Mar precipitation” click on “Normal vs. El Nino Average”. This map compares the wintertime precipitation received in California during El Nino years of the past century to the average precipitation for several regions. Based on this map, describe in quantitative terms how wintertime precipitation is affected by El Nino. Is the entire state affected in a similar way?
(2) Now go back to “Jan-Mar precipitation”, and click on “Distribution of totals during El Nino”. This displays the number of El Nino years associated with below normal, average, and above normal precipitation for several regions. Our region is the “South Coast region”. What percentage of El Nino events were associated with precipitation totals that could be included among the wettest third of the years in our region?
(3) Now return to “Jan-Mar precipitation” and click on “U.S. rankings map”. This shows where, on average, the El Nino years fall if you were to rank all the years from the very wettest to the very driest. Given that there are 10 El Nino years in the 102 year record, are there sometimes very wet years that are not associated with El Nino in Southern California? In which parts of the country are wetness or dryness more strongly associated with El Nino than Southern California?
(4) Suppose an El Nino were forecast to develop next winter. How confident can we be that there will be above normal precipitation in Los Angeles? If an El Nino did occur, but there ended up being normal precipitation that winter, does it mean we should have issued a different forecast for Southern California precipitation? If it does end up being a very wet winter, would that be unequivocally attributable to El Nino? Explain your reasoning.
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