04 Sep Emerging Threats And Countermeas
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Chapter 9
Correlation
Cyber Attacks Protecting National Infrastructure, 1st ed.
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• Correlation is one of the most powerful analytic methods for threat investigation
• Data comparison creates a clearer picture of adversary activity – Profile-based correlation
– Signature-based correlation
– Domain-based correlation
– Time-based correlation
• We rely on human analysis of data; no software can factor in relevant elements
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Introduction
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Fig. 9.1 – Profile-based activity anomaly
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Fig. 9.2 – Signature-based activity match
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Fig. 9.3 – Domain-based correlation of a botnet attack at two targets
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Fig. 9.4 – Time-based correlation of a botnet attack
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Fig. 9.5 – Taxonomy of correlation scenarios
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Conventional Security Correlation Methods
• Threat management – data from multiple sources is correlated to identify patterns, trends, and relationships – The approach relies upon security information and event
management (SIEM)
• Commercial firewalls are underutilized
• Correlation function can be decentralized, but that often complicates the process
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Fig. 9.6 – Correlating intrusion detection alarms with firewall policy
rules
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Quality and Reliability Issues in Data Correlation
• Quality and reliability of data sources important to consider
• Service level agreements – Service level agreements guarantee quality of data
– Quality and reliability not guaranteed with volunteered data
• Without consistent, predictable, and guaranteed data delivery, correlations likely to be incorrect and data likely missing
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Fig. 9.7 – Incorrect correlation result due to imperfect collection
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• Network service providers have best vantage point for correlating data across multiple organizations, regions, etc.
• Network service providers have view of network activity that allows them to see problems
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Correlating Data to Detect a Worm
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Fig. 9.8 – Time-based correlation to detect worm
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• The context of carrier infrastructure may offer best chance to perform correlation relative to a botnet
• Botnets are often widely distributed, geographically
• Sharing information on botnet tactics might help others protect themselves
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Correlating Data to Detect a Botnet
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Fig. 9.9 – Correlative depiction of a typical botnet
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• For national infrastructure protection, large-scale correlation of all-source data is complicated by several factors – Data formats
– Collection targets
– Competition
• These can only be overcome with a deliberate correlation process
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Large-Scale Correlation Process
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Fig. 9.10 – Large-scale, multipass correlation process with feedback
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• Organizations with national infrastructure responsibility should be encouraged to create and follow a local program of data correlation
• National-level programs might be created to correlate collected data at the highest level. This approach requires the following – Transparent operations
– Guaranteed data feeds
– Clearly defined value proposition
– Focus on situational awareness
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National Correlation Process
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