QuestionEstimate a regression model to forecast the total number of visitors:

Estimate a regression model to forecast the total number of visitors:

1) Use estimated regression coefficients to compute forecasts for the number of visitors for the period from January 2004 – November 2012

2) For the forecasted number of visitors from January 2004 – November 2012 calculate:

o Error

o Squared error

o Absolute % error

o The numerator of Thiel’s U statistic

o The denominator of Thiel’s U statistic

3) Calculate the following error metrics: mean error (ME), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and Thiel’s U statistic

4) Compute forecasts for the total number of visitors in December 2012 – December 2013

Compute forecasts for the total number of visitors using additive Holt-Winters model:

1) Open “Additive” template and familiarize yourself with the formulas used to develop additive Holt-Winters model

2) Calculate ME, RMSE, MAPE, and Thiel’s U statistic of the additive Holt-Winter’s forecasts for the period from January 2004 – November 2012

3) Calculate the optimal alpha, beta, and gamma parameters of the model using MS Excel Solver so as to minimize RMSE

4) Compute forecasts for the total number of visitors in December 2012 – December 2013

Compute forecasts for the total number of visitors using multiplicative Holt-Winters model:

1) Open “Multiplicative” template and familiarize yourself with the formulas used to develop multiplicative Holt-Winters model

2) Calculate ME, RMSE, MAPE, and Thiel’s U statistic of the multiplicative Holt-Winter’s forecasts for the period from January 2004 – November 2012

3) Calculate the optimal alpha, beta, and gamma parameters of the model using MS Excel Solver so as to minimize RMSE

4) Compute forecasts for the total number of visitors in December 2012 – December 2013

Compare the error metrics (ME, RMSE, MAPE, Thiel’s U) of the three models.

Construct a line plot showing the actual monthly number of visitors and forecast by these models.

Write a management report (using the required format) suggesting and justifying an appropriate decision regarding the total number of visitors forecast. In your report, analyze the patterns of the monthly and annual number of visitors time series; discuss the properties of each forecasting model and their relevance to predicting the series; select the best forecasting model for the series; make your recommendations supported by arguments which are further supported by references to model results and tables or figures in your report. Independent outside research is encouraged to provide relevant background information and/ or to provide more support for your arguments.

Please make sure that you use the Assignment Cover Sheet as the first page of you report and the Grading Rubric as the second and third pages of your report (available on BB9). Please, embed your Excel spreadsheet showing the appropriate calculations and charts into the Appendix section of your report. How to embed a file into a Word document is explained in Format of a Management Report. (Available on BB9)

Our website has a team of professional writers who can help you write any of your homework. They will write your papers from scratch. We also have a team of editors just to make sure all papers are of HIGH QUALITY & PLAGIARISM FREE. To make an Order you only need to click Ask A Question and we will direct you to our Order Page at WriteDemy. Then fill Our Order Form with all your assignment instructions. Select your deadline and pay for your paper. You will get it few hours before your set deadline.