19 Jul Assignment 2: Probability Analysis
A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.
Options:
| Facility | Demand Options | Probability | Actions | Expected Payoffs |
| Large | Low Demand | 0.4 | Do Nothing | ($10) |
| Low Demand | 0.4 | Reduce Prices | $50 | |
| High Demand | 0.6 | $70 | ||
| Small | Low Demand | 0.4 | $40 | |
| High Demand | 0.6 | Do Nothing | $40 | |
| High Demand | 0.6 | Overtime | $50 | |
| High Demand | 0.6 | Expand | $55 |
Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:
| Build Small: | |
| Low Demand | 0.4($40)=$16 |
| High Demand | 0.6($55)=$33 |
| Build Large: | |
| Low Demand | 0.4($50)=$20 |
| High Demand | 0.6($70)=$42 |
Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: $16+$33=$49
Build Large: $20+$42=$62
Click here for the Statistical Terms review sheet.
Submit your conclusion in a Word document to the M4: Assignment 2 Dropbox by Wednesday, April 5, 2017.
Our website has a team of professional writers who can help you write any of your homework. They will write your papers from scratch. We also have a team of editors just to make sure all papers are of HIGH QUALITY & PLAGIARISM FREE. To make an Order you only need to click Ask A Question and we will direct you to our Order Page at WriteDemy. Then fill Our Order Form with all your assignment instructions. Select your deadline and pay for your paper. You will get it few hours before your set deadline.
Fill in all the assignment paper details that are required in the order form with the standard information being the page count, deadline, academic level and type of paper. It is advisable to have this information at hand so that you can quickly fill in the necessary information needed in the form for the essay writer to be immediately assigned to your writing project. Make payment for the custom essay order to enable us to assign a suitable writer to your order. Payments are made through Paypal on a secured billing page. Finally, sit back and relax.
About Writedemy
We are a professional paper writing website. If you have searched a question and bumped into our website just know you are in the right place to get help in your coursework. We offer HIGH QUALITY & PLAGIARISM FREE Papers.
How It Works
To make an Order you only need to click on “Order Now” and we will direct you to our Order Page. Fill Our Order Form with all your assignment instructions. Select your deadline and pay for your paper. You will get it few hours before your set deadline.
Are there Discounts?
All new clients are eligible for 20% off in their first Order. Our payment method is safe and secure.