macro

12 Aug macro

Assume you have been hired as an economics analyst by the government. In your role you are required to produce a state of the economy report to government ministers. This report provides them with an overview of the economy and current events that may impact the economy – to help them make policy decisions.

The assignment will take the form of a report.

The assignment must be submitted electronically via Canvas and must constitute your own work (it is not a group assignment). Academic staff are not permitted to ‘check’ or ‘pre-read’ your work. Submission for this assignment is via Turnitin. You are required to upload the file in .doc or .docx format only; not as .pdf

If assignments are late then marks will be deducted at 1 mark per day (as per the course guide). Of course, if you have encountered some trouble and have been unable to meet the deadline then please apply for Special Consideration. This webpage provides instructions about how to go about this: http://www1.rmit.edu.au/students/specialconsideration

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. Information on extension requests are provided here: Extensions of time for submission of assessable work

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Students are to use the data in the excel file provided to generate the report. Answers and charts are to be in entered into the word document provided. Follow the instructions for each section – where you are required to produce ONE chart/diagram for a section, you must only produce one – if you produce more than one chart you will receive a zero mark for that rubric requirement.

Remember that you are producing a report for ministers in government therefore your writing and expression should be professional and succinct (these are very busy people – bullet points should not be more than 50 words).

Note:  Bullet points that simply describe the chart generated are duplicating information that is clearly visible and will not earn any marks.

Your answers must be provided under the 5 sections provided in the word document and address each of the following components:

Current Event (5 marks)

In this section, consider a recent news-worthy event that may have a macroeconomic effect on the domestic economy.

Provide a brief summary of the event.

Explain why this event is macroeconomic in nature. Why is it relevant to the domestic economy; how may it affect the domestic economy. For example, will it affect a particular sector(s), what are the implications. Will it affect any of the major macroeconomic variables? How? Why?

[maximum 250 words]

GDP Highlights (4 marks)

Using the GDP data provided in the excel file, generate ONE appropriate excel chart from March 1990 to the most recent period provided, comparing the economic growth rate with the per capita growth rate  – make sure your vertical axis is labelled correctly. (2 marks)

The last recession Australia had was in 1990/91. Examine the two most recent quarters of data and briefly discuss why a “recession” has not been identified in this case. [maximum 100 words] (2 marks)

Labour Market Highlights (4 marks)

Using the labour market data provided in the excel file, generate TWO appropriate excel charts.  Each chart is to compare the unemployment rate for the whole economy with the unemployment rate for people aged 15-24 years; the unemployment rate for people aged 25-34 years; the unemployment rate for people aged 35-44 years; the unemployment rate for people aged 55 years and over. Chart One is to display the data from Jan 1990 to Dec 1999 and Chart Two is to display the data fro Jan 2000 to the most recent period provided. Make sure your two charts are comparable – hint: look to your axis. Make sure your vertical axis is labelled correctly. (3 marks)

Using the labour market data provided in the excel file, consider the underemployed cohort. Comparing the Dec-2018 quarter to the May-2019 quarter, which age group experienced the largest percentage increase in underemployment? Which age group experienced the largest fall?  (1 mark)

Note: If you specify more than 1 group for the increase or more than 1 group for the fall – marks will not be awarded even if the correct ones are within the listing.

Price Movements (3 marks)

Using the relevant data provided in the excel file, generate ONE appropriate excel chart comparing the inflation rate for Australia, Darwin, Hobart, and Melbourne for the period March-2009 to March-2019. (2 marks)

Which CPI product group contributed the most to Darwin’s most recent decrease in its inflation rate? (1 marks)

Note: If you specify more than 1 group – marks will not be awarded even if the correct ones are within the listing.

Monetary Policy (4 marks)

Consider the Reserve Bank Board Meeting scheduled for Tuesday September 3rd.  Using the data you have been provided as well as any updated data available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and applying your understanding of the current conditions in the economy, what do you think the Reserve Bank will do to the cash rate?

· increase it by 50 basis points

· increase it by 25 basis points

· keep it on hold

· decrease it by 25 basis points

· decrease it by 50 basis points

Explain why you have reached this decision.

[maximum 250 words]

Report Document:

Australia Economic Progress Report.docx

Actions

Data for the Report:

Australia Student Data SEM2.xlsx

Marking Criteria

Grades will be awarded on the following basis:

Fail (NN): 

The submitted work does not meet the criteria set.

Pass (PA) 50-59%: 

The submitted work meets the criteria provided set for the tasks and an awareness of relevant substantive issues. This includes clear comprehension of substantive issues within the course, correct application of modelling and basic computation skills.

Credit (CR) 60-69%:

In addition to satisfying the conditions for a pass, the submitted work shows evidence of the ability to engage in detailed quantitative and qualitative application, sensitivity to and understanding of the substantive area and its significance, the ability to comprehend relevant theoretical ideas, and a thorough appreciation of potential outcomes.

Distinction (DI) 70-79%: 

In addition to satisfying the conditions for a credit, the submitted work shows perceptive analysis of relevant material, the ability to engage in complex qualitative and quantitative analysis, and apply extensive and relevant theoretical analysis. The submitted work presents convincing and logically constructed arguments that are cogent and coherent.

High Distinction (HD) 80%: 

In addition to satisfying the conditions for a distinction, the submitted work shows evidence of high order critical analysis and insightful use of wide and relevant theoretical and mathematical understanding as well as thorough attention to presentationof answers. The submitted work demonstrates the capacity to independently articulate consequences and potential outcomes.

Assessment Declaration:

This is an individual assignment. That means it must be your own work and you can’t copy or have someone else complete any part of the work for you. However, it is fine to discuss the issues, ideas and how you may approach the questions with fellow students.

By submitting this assessment you are declaring that you have read, understood and agree to the content and expectations of the Assessment declaration

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Rubric

Australia Economic Progress Report 2019 SEM2

Australia Economic Progress Report 2019 SEM2
Criteria	Ratings	Pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeCurrent Event Why this is a macroeconomic event	1.5 Pts Well explained why this is a macroeconomic event 1.0 Pts Moderate explanation of why this is a macroeconomic event 0.5 Pts Poor explanation of why this is a macroeconomic event 0.0 Pts Why this is a macroeconomics event not explained OR not a macroeconomic event	1.5 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeCurrent Event Word Limit	0.5 Pts Within Word Limit 0.0 Pts Outside Word Limit	0.5 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeCurrent Event Event Summary	1.0 Pts Excellent Summary – Excellent expression providing a succinct summary containing the required detail 0.5 Pts Acceptable Summary – Reasonably expressed summary 0.0 Pts No Event Summary Provided	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeCurrent Event Economic Impact	2.0 Pts Excellent impact statement provided – logical and clear identification of consequences for correct sectors/variables with an excellent explanation/reasoning and expression 1.5 Pts Impact statement provided – reasonable and coherent explanation – well written/expressed 1.0 Pts Impact statement provided with some explanation/reasoning 0.5 Pts Impact statement provided with poor explanation/reasoning 0.0 Pts No impact statement provided	2.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeGDP Highlights Excel Chart – Chart-type	1.0 Pts Appropriate chart-type provided and vertical axis correctly labelled 0.5 Pts Appropriate chart-type provided 0.0 Pts No Chart or Inappropriate Chart-type Provided or More than one chart provided	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeGDP Highlights Excel Chart – Variable/Data Displayed in Chart	1.0 Pts Both Variables Correctly Determined and Displayed in Chart 0.5 Pts One Correct Variable Determined and Displayed in the Chart 0.0 Pts Incorrect Variable Determined and Displayed in Chart or No Chart or More than one chart	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeGDP Highlights Recession	1.5 Pts Excellent explanation of why a recession has not been identified – clearly linked to the quarterly data for both variable with excellent expression 1.0 Pts Good explanation of why a recession has not been identified – clearly linked to the quarterly data for both variables 0.5 Pts Acceptable explanation of why a recession has not been identified with some accurate linking to the quarterly data 0.0 Pts No discussion or incorrect explanation or incoherent explanation of why a recession has not be identified	1.5 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeGDP Highlights Recession  Word Limit	0.5 Pts Within word limit 0.0 Pts Outside Word Limit	0.5 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeLabour Market Highlights Excel Charts – Chart-type	1.0 Pts Chart 1 & Chart 2 are an appropriate chart-types, vertical axis both correctly labelled and comparable 0.5 Pts Chart 1 & 2 are appropriate chart-types and axis are correctly labelled for both 0.25 Pts Charts 1 & 2 are appropriate chart-types and at least one axis is correctly labelled 0.0 Pts No Chart or Inappropriate Chart-type Provided or More than the required number of charts provided	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeLabour Market Highlights Excel Charts – Variables/Data Displayed in Chart	0.5 Pts All variables correctly determined and displayed in chart 0.25 Pts Some variables correctly determined and displayed in chart 0.0 Pts Incorrect Variables Determined and Displayed in Chart or No Chart or More than the required number of Charts provided	0.5 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeLabour Market Highlights Excel Chart – Time periods displayed	0.5 Pts Chart 1 & Chart 2 display the correct time frames 0.25 Pts One chart displays the correct time frame 0.0 Pts Incorrect time frames Displayed in Chart or No Chart or No Chart or More than the required number of Charts provided	0.5 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeLabour Market Highlights Underemployment	2.0 Pts Both groups correctly identified 1.0 Pts One group correctly identified 0.0 Pts Groups not provided or incorrect groups or more than the required number of groups listed	2.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomePrice Movements Excel Chart – Chart-type	1.0 Pts Appropriate chart-type provided and vertical axis correctly labelled 0.5 Pts Appropriate chart-type provided 0.0 Pts No Chart or Inappropriate Chart-type Provided or More than One Chart Provided	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomePrice Movements Excel Chart – Variable/Data Displayed in Chart	1.0 Pts All variables correctly determined and displayed in chart 0.75 Pts Three variables correctly determined and displayed in chart 0.5 Pts Two variables correctly determined and displayed in chart 0.25 Pts One variable correctly determined and displayed in chart 0.0 Pts Incorrect Variables Determined and Displayed in Chart or No Chart or More than One Chart Provided	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomePrice Movements CPI product group	1.0 Pts Correct product group identified 0.0 Pts Incorrect product group identified	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeMonetary Policy Cash rate movement	1.0 Pts Expected cash rate movement identified out of the options provided 0.0 Pts Expected cash rate movement NOT identified out of the options provided	1.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeRisk Outlook Risk Explained	2.5 Pts Excellent explanation/logic applied – well expressed and linked to the ABS data correctly 2.0 Pts Good explanation/logic applied – well expressed and linked to the ABS data correctly 1.5 Pts Good explanation/logic applied – well expressed 1.0 Pts Good explanation/logic applied – poor expression 0.0 Pts No explanation provided OR wrong/irrelevant explanation/logic 0.0 Pts Poor explanation/logic applied – poorly expressed	2.5 pts
This criterion is linked to a learning outcomeRisk Outlook Word Limit	0.5 Pts Within word limit 0.0 Pts Outside word limit	0.5 pts
Total points: 20.0

Note: As you finalise your assignment this week, many of you are asking whether your “event” is ‘correct’.

Please consider the following when deciding on your news event.

Does your news/event have implications for the economy’s major variables? – ie inflation, unemployment, production/growth, productivity?

· may your ‘news event’ impact the general level of prices (CPI/GDP deflator)? How? Why?

and/or

· may your ‘news event’ impact the economy-wide unemployment rate? How? Why?

and/or

· may your ‘news event’ impact overall production/growth/productivity in the economy? How? Why?

If you can answer at least one of those bullet points – your event is appropriate and macroeconomic in nature.

Also consider:

· may your ‘event’ impact the behaviour of the overall household sector? business sector? public sector? external sector – and thus affect Australian variables and sectors? How? Why? As the behaviour of the sector(s) changes, how may this affect the inflation rate/unemployment rate/growth rate/production/productivity?