05 May Plot The Data On U.S. General Aviation Shipments. (B) Describe The …
Problem 6: (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. (d) Make a similar graph for 1992–2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004? (e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992–2003 data. (f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set? U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1966-2003 Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes 1966 15,587 1976 15,451 1986 1,495 1996 1,053 1967 13,484 1977 16,904 1987 1,085 1997 1,482 1968 13,556 1978 17,811 1988 1,143 1998 2,115 1969 12,407 1979 17,048 1989 1,535 1999 2,421 1970 7,277 1980 11,877 1990 1,134 2000 2,714 1971 7,346 1981 9,457 1991 1,021 2001 2,538 1972 9,774 1982 4,266 1992 856 2002 2,169 1973 13,646 1983 2,691 1993 870 2003 2,090 1974 14,166 1984 2,431 1994 881 1975 14,056 1985 2,029 1995 1,028
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