03 Jul Question Description Write a one-page essay on your opinion on this lecture.
Question Description
Write a one-page essay on your opinion on this lecture.
Do you agree or disagree?
How should we approach our energy future?
Provide one new idea/opinion/thought/example.
Tags: english summary energy Geology
lecture_24_future_of_energy_2019_copy.pdf
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Assignments This Week Final for Lecture 1 – 1 May, 11:00-1:00pm Final for Lecture 2 – 29 April, 5:00-7:00pm Read Chapter 15 p. 342-346 Read Today in Energy at http://www.eia.gov/ Dates 3/11, 3/12, 3/13, 3/14, 3/18, 3/19. 3/22, 3/27, 4/9, 4/10, 4/19 Send Your Question to Post by Noon Wednesday 4/24 Present on Wednesday Presenters on Next Slide Extra-Credit Write a one-page essay on your opinion on this lecture. 1. Do you agree or disagree? 2. How should we approach our energy future? 3. Provide one new idea/opinion/thought/example. Assignments Assignment EIA Lecture 1 – Name Lecture 2 – Name March 11 Matthew Booth Ahmed Al Dulaijin March 12 Gunther Byrd Ahmed Al Isaii March 13 Jillian Cesard Mohammed Al Abdulqadir March 14 Chandler Crist Mohammed Al Khan March 18 Justin Decklebaum Sufyan Al Nassar March 19 Austin Del Carlo Mohammed Al Shalan March 22 Danielle Devlin Makayla Henary March 27 Brian Gumbs March 29 Joseph Hagan April 9 Joseph Henthorn April 10 Ian Hunt April 19 Alexander Irwin April 16 (if needed) Today in Energy at http://www.eia.gov/ Ryan Jacobs Abulaziz Alsubaie Future of Energy Grand Objective: Solve the “Energy Problem” But which one? • Continuation of Low Energy Prices • U.S. Domestic Energy Security • World Energy Security • Food and Water Security • Local Energy “Invisibility” and Environmental Damage • (NIMBY, CAVE, BANANA, NOPE) • Global Environmental Damage – “Save the Planet” • Total energy consumption prior to 2000 was roughly 2 trillion bbls of oil equivalent • Another 13 trillion bbls of oil equivalent needed by 2100 G. Kulcinski, 2008 How Much Remains? Price, Exploration and Technology Reserves The known amount of a commodity that can be profitably extracted, assuming present day technology and economic conditions. Resources Reserves that have not yet been discovered or are not yet economic (or both) Prediction is Hard “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure, that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Attributed to Niels Bohr (Also attributed to Yogi Berra) Peak Gas – When? 2018, 37,007,637 2017, 33,357,375 2016, 32,635,511 2015, 32,914,647 2014, 31,405,381 2013, 25,690,878 2012, 25,283,278 Hubbert (1903-1989) EIA – Data Marketed Production en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hubbert.jpg World Peak Oil – When? Despite many predictions, no sign of peak just yet… A Fossil Future? • Composite fossil fuel “peak” still a long way off Energy Prod., Energy Cost, Env. Damage, Warming, Sea Level ARC 12/2012 • Bad news for climate? • Keep it in the Ground Movement Energy Return on Investment (EROI) Total energy requirement Useful Energy required • Ratio of energy obtained to energy invested • A measure of energy quality, i.e. natural concentration • Things start to get ugly around EROI = 3 Hydrates Quantity vs. Quality, NonRenewables • Key question: how long will economic resources last? • Answer requires knowledge of future prices and technology (which we can’t actually know) • Total magnitude of fossil fuels and uranium very large Quantity vs. Quality, Renewables • Key question: how long can renewables keep up with growth in power demand? • For naturally concentrated renewables (Biofuels), the answer appears to be “not very long” • “Diffuse” renewables (solar, biofuels) are much larger • Utilization of the latter strongly dependent on future technology and energy prices (which we don’t yet know) Peak Biofuels/Food? ARC 12/2012 • All of these resources are mandatory, so decline based on first to peak • Trade-offs: food vs. fuel, meat eating vs. vegetarianism • Environmental costs generally not taken into account (sound familiar?!) • Availability of food tied to availability of energy! Rising World Food Prices Contributing Factors: 1. Price of Hydrocarbons 2. Biofuel Demand Crude Oil Price 3. Population 4. Weather Strange Bedfellows? • Wind is intermittently available, but stable in price • Gas is continuously available, but unstable in price • Natural gas may make it easier to develop wind? Earth Magazine, Dec. 2012 Projected Renewables Growth EIA Dec. 2012 • Renewables currently about 10% of electricity generation • Projected to increase to 14% in 2035 Dung Patty Preparation in India The Impact of Technology Hand-Dug Well Cable Tools Rotary Drilling Offshore Drilling “Fracking” Law of Doomsaying • Predict catastrophe no sooner than five years hence but no later than 10 years away, soon enough to terrify but distant enough that people will forget if you are wrong. Greg Easterbrook, 1995 • “The battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large-scale famines in the next decade.” Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1969 Laws of Political Energy Policy • Promise Solutions Beyond your Term in Office – Multiples of 4 Years • Make the Solutions Simple, Rapid and Pain-Free – Signal Virtue without Sacrifice • Provide an Energy Source than will be our Savior – Ethanol, Biodiesel, Solar, Wind, etc. • Blame it on Someone Else – Barons of Corporate Greed Preferred • Ignore Scientists and Results That Don’t Fit your Narrative – Even the Same Scientist • Appeal to a Higher Goal – “Save the Planet” • Promise another bigger solution, if one can’t reach the first solution – See Point at Top Virtue Signaling and Politics Connecticut increased its overall RPS target in May 2018 to a 48% renewable generation share of electricity sales by 2030, up from the previous target of 27% by 2020. The target requires at least 40% of electricity sales to come from traditional renewable technologies such as solar, wind, fuel cells, wave, tidal, most biomass technologies, and small run-of-the-river hydropower; up to 4% from additional waste-to-energy technologies; and 4% from combined heat and power systems. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38492 Connecticut Renewable Production and Targets 50% 2030 Target Percent Traditional Renewable 45% 40% 35% 30% 2020 Target 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Will Connecticut meet their goals? 2020 Impossible, 2030 ????? Law of Political Energy Policy Note Date Note Date https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 Lack of Geologic Perspective Magnitude and Length of Time for Geologic and Energy Processes and Systems Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) https://www.alternet.org/2019/04/ocasio-cortez-narrates-videoenvisioning-the-green-new-deal-we-can-be-whatever-we-have-thecourage-to-see/ 2019 Lack of Geologic Perspective Magnitude and Length of Time for Geologic and Energy Processes and Systems Trigger Warning on Language https://youtu.be/7W33HRc1A6c 2007 Lack of Geologic Perspective Magnitude and Length of Time for Geologic and Energy Processes and Systems Even if you have to ignore a person’s later science if it does not fit your narrative. “The notion that renewable energies and batteries alone will provide all needed energy is fantastical. It is also a grotesque idea, because of the staggering environmental pollution from mining and material disposal, if all energy was derived from renewables and batteries.” He follows that up by referring to the notion of an economy powered entirely by renewable energy a “fantasy.” https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2018/06/26/thirty-years-later-whatneeds-change-our-approach-climatechange/dUhizA5ubUSzJLJVZqv6GP/story.html 2019 The Challenge of This Century Energy Supply Will/Must Increase High Carbon Fuels Are Abundant and Should be Used Efficiently Energy Transitions/Revolutions Many Decades Market Volatility Creates Uncertainty Shifting Political Dynamics Current Economic Conditions Affect Supply & Demand Choices Need to Address Greenhouse Gas Emissions Energy Policy Challenge Balancing Priorities to Achieve Objectives Economic Objectives Reliable and Secure Affordable/Accessible Natural Gas Promotes/Supports Economic Growth & Employment Oil Defensible Nuclear Energy Efficiency Environmentally Benign Carbon Capture and Storage Renewable Energy Security & Foreign Policy Objectives Environmental Objectives Low emissions David Pumphrey, CSIS Energy Program Coal Promotes/Supports Sustainable Environment Recommendations Promote significant energy efficiency and other measures that contribute to both energy security and climate goals Reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from technologies that contribute to energy security (coal, oil, natural gas and biofuels) and promote low-carbon technologies including nuclear power Support domestic conventional fossil fuel production and usage during the slow transition to lower-carbon fuels Improve Energy Education for the General Public Modified from David Pumphrey, CSIS Energy Program Recommendations Make & Implement a Public Financial Commitment to Address Energy Supply and Use Energy Security Climate Change Portfolio of Energy/Environmental Options Technically Sound Economically Sustainable Significant in Size Minimize Environmental Impact Develop basic research, enabling technologies for lowcarbon technologies including advanced generation and subsurface carbon storage Invest for Long-Term Infrastructure, Technology, Education & People Course Conclusions • Energy resource utility depends strongly on natural geologic processes of resource concentration. The most useful resources are those that provide natural “leverage”. Low Environmental Impact Higher Energy • Technology changes reality. Energy production and use evolves continuously in association with new technological innovations. Shale Gas • There is no free lunch. All forms of large-scale energy involve significant cost and environmental tradeoffs. Biofuels, Wind, Gas, Nuclear, etc., etc. Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice. From what I’ve tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To say that for destruction ice Is also great And would suffice. – Robert Frost Assignments This Week Final for Lecture 1 – 1 May, 11:00-1:00pm Final for Lecture 2 – 29 April, 5:00-7:00pm Read Chapter 15 p. 342-346 Read Today in Energy at http://www.eia.gov/ Dates 3/11, 3/12, 3/13, 3/14, 3/18, 3/19. 3/22, 3/27, 4/9, 4/10, 4/19 Send Your Question to Post by Noon Wednesday 4/24 Present on Wednesday Presenters on Next Slide Extra-Credit Write a one-page essay on your opinion on this lecture. 1. Do you agree or disagree? 2. How should we approach our energy future? 3. Provide one new idea/opinion/thought/example. Assignments Assignment EIA Lecture 1 – Name Lecture 2 – Name March 11 Matthew Booth Ahmed Al Dulaijin March 12 Gunther Byrd Ahmed Al Isaii March 13 Jillian Cesard Mohammed Al Abdulqadir March 14 Chandler Crist Mohammed Al Khan March 18 Justin Decklebaum Sufyan Al Nassar March 19 Austin Del Carlo Mohammed Al Shalan March 22 Danielle Devlin Makayla Henary March 27 Brian Gumbs March 19 Joseph Hagan April 9 Joseph Henthorn April 10 Ian Hunt April 19 Alexander Irwin April 16 (if needed) Today in Energy at http://www.eia.gov/ …
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