14 May STRATEGIC ESTIMATE
Strategic Estimate
Strategic Estimate
Purpose. Update the Strategic Estimate for the Caucasus Region based on notional scenario events that have occurred up to December 2019.
Scenario.
1. The situation in the Caucasus Region has shown signs of increasing instability. Some indicators of this instability are:
• Since 2008, Georgia has not controlled the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions, whose independence Moscow recognized and where Moscow retains sizeable military forces;
• Since 2016, the South Azeri Peoples Army (SAPA) has been operating in Azerbaijan. Initially backed by Iranian fundamentalists, it now receives support from breakaway “Ahurastan.”
• Iran has lost control over much of its northern territory. In 2018, an ethnically based semi-autonomous region “Ahurastan” broke away from Iran. “Ahurastan” borders the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. “Ahurastan” declared independence in early 2019. In the same time frame, Irans southwest provinces broke away to form the “Republic of Luristan.”
• Azerbaijan, Iran and “Ahurastan” maintain competing claims over oil rights in portions of the Caspian Sea. Ahurastanian naval vessels have challenged Azerbaijani and Turkish oil exploration vessels in the Caspian Sea.
• Beginning in October 2019, “Ahurastan” has provided sporadic cross-border support to SAPA insurgents operating in the border areas of Azerbaijan.
• The Free Karabakh Movement (FKM) attacked the Armenian nuclear power station at Metsamor in November 2019.
2. You are a member of a EUCOM J5 Joint Planning Group. Although EUCOM has not received any tasking from national authorities to begin planning, the Chief of Staff has directed the J5 to update the Strategic Estimate for the Caucasus Region to get the Commander up to speed on the situation in the region and provide the basis for a commanders estimate, and if necessary, development of plans.
Members of your planning group prepared a draft Strategic Estimate last night that was reviewed by the Chief of Staff. The Chief of Staff indicated that Ahurastan be included in the Regional Study and a third course of action be developed for the brief.
You will complete:
• Regional Analysis on Ahurastan (similar to slides 20 23), should be at least 2 pages
• Develop a third option and initial screening (similar to slides 34 41) should be at least 3 pages)
Requirement. Provide the information using the last two pages of this document.
Most of the estimate is provided for you. The draft estimate contains the pertinent information, to include the interests and objectives for other countries in the region. Also use the information provided in the Scenario Reference Book 1-5 to complete this assignment.
Cite your sources where you got the information. Cite your source using either footnotes or endnotes IAW the Turabian style of documentation; do not use parenthetical citations. This includes direct quotations, paraphrases, and summaries of the assigned readings, doctrinal references, or outside sources.
Regional Analysis-Ahurastan
Population
Demographics
History
Religions
Economy
Key Individuals President ; Prime Minister
Government
Communications
Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries
Interests Settling the N-K conflict with Armenia;
Objectives
Current U.S. Programs
COA (most likely)
COA (most dangerous)
Degree of Interest in the Outcome
Develop Third Option and Initial Screening
General Description:
Diplomatic:
Information:
Military:
Economic:
Risks:
Mitigation Strategies:
Adequate:
Feasible:
Acceptable:
Distinguishable:
Complete:
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