23 Jun The answer is that the native populatio
The answer is that the native population of European countries had declined to a point near or below “replacement level” and there were too few native-born workers to fill the available jobs and thus fund older peo- ples pensions and health care services.
What caused the population decline? The availability of effective birth control techniques in the 1960s and 1970s and the choice of more and more families to employ those techniques. What caused so many families to limit the number of their children? One factor was the century-long population movement from rural areas to cities, where children are an economic burden rather than an asset. Others were the growing emphasis on self-fulfillment and the corresponding tendency to regard child rearing as self-stifling.
As even this brief analysis of causes and effects suggests, facile re- sponses to complex issues—in this case, “Middle Easterners are trying to take over Europe” or “The Crusades are here again, in reverse”—are not only unhelpful but unfair. The following cautions will help you avoid oversimplification in your analyses:
Remember that events seldom, if ever, “just happen.” They occur as the re- sult of specific influences, and these influences may be major or minor, direct or indirect, proximate or remote in time or space; also irresistible (forced or necessary) or resistible (invited, encouraged, or inspired).
Remember that free will is a powerful causative factor in human affairs, and it is often intertwined with other causes. In the case of the changes in European society, the movement of people from farm to city and the use of birth control were individual choices, but the greater availability of jobs in the cities (an eco- nomic reality) and birth control technology (a scientific development) were not.
Be aware that in a chain of events, an effect often becomes a cause. For exam- ple, the decline in population in Europe caused the importation of foreign workers, which in turn caused a change in the ratio of native-born to foreign cit- izens, which may in time alter the continents dominant values and attitudes.
Be aware that, in dealing with human affairs, outcomes can be unpredictable.
Therefore, in determining causes, you may have to settle for probability rather than certainty (as you would in matters that lend themselves to scientific meas- urement). In other words, you might conclude that something is more likely than not or, when the probability is very high, substantially more likely to be the cause. Either of these conclusions has significantly more force than mere possibility, but it falls short of certainty. The difference is roughly analogous to the differ- ence in legal standards of judgment: in civil cases, the standard is “a preponder- ance of the evidence” or “clear and convincing evidence,” whereas in criminal cases it is the more demanding standard of “beyond a reasonable doubt.”
In searching for truth, when you encounter possible cause-and-effect relationships, keep these cautions in mind.
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