You Are Responsible For Forecasting Company Monthly Product Revenues

27. You are responsible for forecasting company monthly product revenues and you have collected the data in Doc Sharing under Exam 3 Data. The X variables that you believe may determine sales revenues include customer use of the company website, per unit charge for the product, and the number of customers that are members of the company frequent buyers plan. In addition, you noted that sales revenues slumped during a worker’s strike against the company in April of 2010. The workers were on strike only in that month. Develop the best multiple regression model using this information. Do not use transformations, a trend counter or leads or lags as X variables to get the best regression. Make sure each variable used in the best model is significant. Identify the appropriate adjusted R square value for the fit period below. Hint: Run the correlations for the continuous X variables before you run regression. A. 97.0% B. 87.5% C. 79.3% D. 98.7% E. 99.5% Question 28. 28. Does the best regression model have significant multicollinearity? A. No since the D-W statistics is below 2.5. B. No since the VIFs are below 2.5 C. Yes since the F value is very high at 745.9. D. No since the constant term is significant. Question 29. 29. Does the best regression model that you ran in problem 27 have severe serial correlation? How can you tell? A. No since the D-W statistic is in the midrange between the lower limit and 4 minus the lower limit. B. Yes, since the D-W statistic exceeds the lower limit. C. Yes, since the VIF is less than 2.5. D. No, since the F value and R square value are large. E. Yes, since the model D-W falls below the lower D-W table value. Question 30. 30. Given the forecast values for each of the X variables and the fact that you are not expecting a worker’s strike over the forecast period what is your forecast of sales revenues for August of 2011?(Points : 3) A. 163.4 B. 144.9 C. 138.2 D. 152.8 E. 174.2 Question 31. 31. What is the MAPE for the forecast period for your best regression model? A. 1.9 Percent B. 1.2 Percent C. 4.1 Percent D. 5.4 Percent E. 13.1 Percent Question 32. 32. Is the model heteroscedastic? Check the KB results to determine your answer. A. No the residuals do not indicate heteroscedasticity since the KB test coefficient is significant. B. Yes, the residuals indicate heteroscedasticity since the KB coefficient is not significant. C. Yes, the residuals indicate heteroscedasticity since the KB test coefficient is significant. D. No the model is not heteroscedastic since the KB coefficient is not significant. Question 33. 33. The model accuracy was better for the forecast period than the fit period. ) A. True B. False Question 34.34. Do the hold out values fall within the forecast 95% confidence limits? A. Yes, the hold out values all stay with the forecast confidence limits. B. The hold out values fall outside of the forecast confidence limits in the last two months C. No. The hold out falls completely outside of the confidence interval for the entire forecast.